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“It's an amazing piece of software. You guys really have impressive design abilities to take such a difficult concept and pull it off as a practical app. It's really a great feat in out-of-the-box thinking. Kudos!”
— Conrad Barski, M.D.,
author of Land of Lisp
From the Beeminder Blog (Guaranteed Fresh!)
The Theory And Practice Of Predicting One's Own Behavior: Prediction Markets as Commitment Devices
Posted 2023 September 20
A fun fact about predicting your own behavior, particularly publicly, is that the act of predicting it changes the prediction. “I’m 75% likely to maintain my Duolingo streak all year, but now that I’ve said so, I’m actually 90% likely, but now that I’ve said that, …” Or what happens when the probability...
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