Your actual reported data. The color shows where you are with respect to your yellow brick road:
Green:
good side of the road
Blue:
right lane
Orange:
wrong lane
Red:
off the road
Yellow brick road ?
Keep your dots on the road!
Akrasia horizon ?
This line is a week away from now. You can only make changes in the steepness of your road beyond the akrasia horizon.
Moving average ?
This is an exponentially weighted moving average with smoothing constant 0.25. It shows the overall trend of your data, but lagged. If most of your daily numbers are below this trend line then you are inexorably dragging it down.
For the case of weight loss, this is another way — proposed in The Hacker's Diet — to see the forest through the trees, to see past the daily random fluctuations to what your weight is really doing.
Polynomial fit trend ?
Think of this as a very thick line charting your progress or an aura around your actual data. (Technically it's a polynomial fit of your data.) It gives you a sense of your true trend.
Yellow guide lines ?
These thin yellow lines indicate the good side of the yellow brick road. The thicker line demarcates 7 days of safety buffer. (If you keep your safety buffer at 7 days or higher then you're immune to being stung. If anything comes up, just flatten your yellow brick road. It will take effect after the 7-day akrasia horizon but since you have that much safety buffer, you're golden!)
