Your actual reported data. The color shows where you are with respect to your bright red line:
> 3 days of buffer
~ 2 days of buffer
~ 1 day of buffer
crossed the red line
Bright Red Line?
Keep your dots on the good side of this bright red line!
Colored guiding lines?
The orange line shows one day of safety buffer. The blue line is two days, and the green line demarcates seven days of safety buffer.
(If you keep your safety buffer at 7 days or higher then you're immune to being stung. If anything comes up, just flatten your bright red line. It will take effect after the 7-day akrasia horizon but since you have that much safety buffer, you're golden!)
Yellow guide lines ?
These thin yellow lines indicate the good side of the bright red line.
Akrasia horizon ?
This line is a week away from now. You can only make changes in the steepness of your red line beyond the akrasia horizon.
This shaded pink zone on the wrong side of your bright line shows the bare minimum that you are committed to doing this week. Your red line can never get easier and dip into this forbidden zone.
Infinitely safe region?
This light yellow shaded region shows the infinitely safe area. If your datapoints are in this zone, then you have exceeded the final total of your graph, and your safety buffer is unbounded. You usually see this as your goal approaches the end date, or if you have an infinitely flat bright red line for some reason.
Optimistic projection ?
An optimistic view of progress, i.e., a view of your data through rose-colored glasses. It shows your inexorable march towards your goal. If you're bouncing around it just shows you flat. When you go down (or whichever direction your goal is), it shows you that right away.
It never shows you going up (or whatever the wrong direction is) unless it's sure you've screwed up.
If you find the random fluctuation unnerving, you can focus on the pink dots day-to-day.
Moving average ?
This is an exponentially weighted moving average with smoothing constant 0.25. It shows the overall trend of your data, but lagged. If most of your daily numbers are below this trend line then you are inexorably dragging it down.
For the case of weight loss, this is another way — proposed in The Hacker's Diet — to see the forest through the trees, to see past the daily random fluctuations to what your weight is really doing.
Polynomial fit trend ?
Think of this as a very thick line charting your progress or an aura around your actual data. (Technically it's a polynomial fit of your data.) It gives you a sense of your true trend.
Features not enabled on this graph:
Max flux ?
This thicker yellow line denotes the user-specified maximum daily fluctuation, shown as an offset from the bright red line. Details in the FAQ.
Standard flux ?
This dashed yellow line indicates a so-called 90% variance derived from your data, shown as an offset from the bright red line. Details in the FAQ.
This goal has the following fine print specified by apolyton:
Further goal: 80kg by xmas 2016
By 2016-06-30 reach value 80
Until 2016-06-08 decrease at rate -0.13
By 2016-12-31 reach value 80